LARRY'S CORNER- Hamilton's Former Mayor Speaks

A Review of My New Year’s Predictions

By Larry Di Ianni
(posted July 13, 2009)

In a moment of audacious fancy this past January, I actually penned some predictions for 2009. Many people probably do the same. Very seldom, however are predictions reviewed or assessed against their success/failure rates. Since we are now half way through the year, I thought I’d go back and review what I said then to see how my prognostication abilities are faring.

As a reminder, here is what I predicted, along with a quick comment on each:

1. Barack Obama will invest trillions in economic stimuli. The U.S. will lead the way in global economic resurgence because of this fact, dragging the world, Canada included, along with it.

2. The Iraqi war will end, but Afghanistan’s will deepen, creating political problems for the new president. Hamid Karzai will be replaced as President.

3. Osama Bin Laden will be killed by a military surge in Afghanistan. Pakistan will take credit for this blow to terrorism. This will suit the U.S. just fine because it will help stabilize the Indo-Pakistani problem.

4. Hillary Clinton will visit Ottawa in March leading the way for an Obama visit later in the year. He will get along with the Prime Minister but really like Michael Ignatieff, whom he probably knows from their academic years.

5. Oil prices will stabilize at about $50 per barrel for 2009.

6. Prince Charles and Camilla, who has a connection to Hamilton, will visit the city before the end of the year.

7. Stock markets will rebound but not until the last quarter of the year.

8. Unemployment will still plague most of the developed world in spite of improving economic situations. This will be a problem for Canada especially.

9. There will not be a Federal election in 2009 but there will be one in 2010. Can you say Prime Minister Iggy?

10. The Ontario Liberal government will appoint one more cabinet minister from Hamilton; the Federal Tories will finally give Hamilton a cabinet seat, but not until late 2009 to get ready for the election in ’10.

11. The province will come through with a loan for the city. Our tax hike will be just under 3%.

12. Light rail will be approved for the city of Hamilton. The Feds will come through with a major funding announcement to support the city’s and province’s money.

13. There will be a huge backlash by some communities once they understand the implications of trains running in front of their businesses and homes. Some councillors will balk at the political heat.

14. The race for Mayor will heat up in 2009 with a major City Hall ‘outsider’ making a move. Fred will get some political wins this year.

15. There will be more changes to Hamilton’s senior bureaucracy. Chris Murray will build tremendous strength in the organization.

16. There will be a major shake-up in all the local media with changing roles in a number of key places.

17. Hamilton’s philanthropists will bring their giving to an even higher level this year with significant, city-changing projects.

18. Via Rail and GO Transit will announce an east end location this year.

19. The Pan Am games will come to Ontario. Hamilton will get prized sports facility.

20. The Ticats will win the Grey Cup this year with a new quarterback at the helm.

1. Trillions have been invested by Obama and the rest of the industrialized world followed suit. Some headway has been made, but we are not out of the woods yet.

2. The Americans have scaled down the Iraqi war with troops being out of all major cities. The Afghani war is seeing a surge as we speak; that country is also seeing a much more aggressive opposition against allied troops and civilians are also being targeted. Karzai seems to have made peace with the Administration, but we will see if he survives politically.

3. Osama has gone into deeper hiding. Watch out. Obama will get you.

4. Well, I was close. Hillary was beaten to Canada by her boss. He was very well received especially by those surprised shoppers at the Beaver Tail stall.

5. Oil has stabilized even though we have seen a price spike for the summer.

6. Charles and Camilla in Hamilton? This is beginning to look like a real long-shot. However, the Emperor of Japan and his consort came to Toronto! I know; not even close.

7. Stock markets have rebounded but are still showing volatility.

8. Unemployment is a problem in the US and in Canada. Canada seems to be faring better.

9. I stand by my election prediction and the winner of that election.

10. I stand by both predictions.

11. I was pretty close. We got the bailout and our tax increase was about 2%

12. Too early to say. But here’s hoping.

13. We’ll see.

14. We’ll see. As for the political wins? Not too many thus far.

15. This has happened in the person of the General Manager of Finance.

16. What can I say? Zero bought CHCH. The Spec lost a treasured photographer, and Hall Marks is shutting down.

17. I was thinking of the Education/Medical Center. There is still time for this to happen.

18. I think this has occurred, at least for GO.

19. The jury is still out, but my sources tell me things are looking good.

20. We have a new quarterback and we just won our first game, out west, no less. I stand by my prediction. The TiCats WILL be champs.

I didn’t mention anything about a hockey team for Hamilton, nor the momentum being enjoyed by the waterfall initiative, nor the approval of our urban development policy, nor the investments coming to the city’s east end, nor countless of other things that have occurred, but hey a prognosticator can only prognosticate so much!!

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