LARRY'S CORNER- Hamilton's Former Mayor Speaks

Pandemic Response: Is Hamilton Ready?

By Larry Di Ianni
(posted April 27, 2009)

I recall a sceptical Roy Green interviewing me on radio regarding the city’s emergency simulation responding to a hypothetical pandemic attack in our community. Roy’s tone was one of undue alarm over an improbable event. I recall saying to him that the city had an obligation to hope for the best but plan for the worst. Now as we see country after country, including Canada, readying for the widespread proliferation of the swine flu, the planning done a number of years ago may stand this community in good stead.

I recall our Medical Officer of Health (MoH), Dr. Elizabeth Richardson, a bright and talented individual whose role is pivotal in keeping this community safe, telling me that it wasn’t a matter of ‘if’ a pandemic might hit, it was a question of ‘when’. It seems that her prophetic words may be playing themselves out as we speak. It is still too early as I type this essay to say that we have a world-wide pandemic of the swine flu, but we are seeing countries fall like dominoes as they report swine flu instances on their own territories. Mexico, which seems to have been the incubus of this latest strain of influenza, is reporting deaths approaching the 100 mark. As far away as Mexico is, modern day travel means that all of us are vulnerable. New York City students are being treated for a mild case of swine flu. New Zealand is reporting cases. In Canada, so far, B.C. and Nova Scotia have reported instances as well. The common link among all sufferers seems to be recent trips to Mexico. What is worrisome in the New York High school’s experience is that some of the ill students were not directly on the trip but came into contact with those who were in Mexico. Hence, one of the telling signs of a pandemic is this human to human contamination as the illness spreads. Unless the response is sensible and quick, the spread can happen with lightning speed. In 1968 and 1969, the last occurrence of a “Hong Kong” pandemic, 34,000 people were said to have died in the US alone, one million worldwide. In 1918, the deaths reached the multi-million mark. At that time, the influenza was known as the Spanish flu, having had its genesis in Spain. The disturbing similarity between what is happening now and what occurred in 1918 is that the flu seems to be attacking the young and the healthy rather than simply the old and feeble, usual victims to influenza.

A number of things worried me about the emergency simulation we did during my tenure in the Mayor’s chair; and more than a few things impressed me. The most worrisome part of the exercise was the amazing exponential increase in numbers that can occur when the illness is in full flight. The numbers can reach staggering proportions. The other disconcerting factor was that the randomness of the disease can incapacitate the very people we rely on to provide support. Health care workers, emergency responders in fire, police and ambulance, teachers, waste management personnel and others, might be in the group most infected. Not to mention the various places of work: offices, factories, grocery stores, churches, arenas, theatres, transit amenities also could be affected. How can a city work, given this state of disability? We saw a bit of an example in Mexico City as the Mayor closed down the entertainment facilities as well as other public venues. The Catholic Church even told its faithful to stay home on Sunday rather than attend the weekly liturgy. This scenario should give us just an idea of how topsy-turvy the world can quickly become.

What encouraged me, however, was the absolute first-class readiness plan that the city has developed; and the speed with which it can be implemented; and the alternative provisions of service that can be employed depending on circumstances. Rest assured; we will be taken care of in the best manner possible under some potentially trying circumstances. You can also rest assured that the Mayor will be briefed and if there is any hint of trouble for our community, a professional communications plan will also be put into place. This plan will provide advice and information to citizens. It makes one rest easier knowing that there are professionals in the city whose job is to worry about the unthinkable so the rest of us can go about our daily lives.

In the meantime, as we watch events unfold world-wide, let’s hope and pray for the best. We have already planned for the worst. If we are lucky, those plans will remain on the shelf for a bit while longer.

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